From 2004 to 2014 to 2024: The Story of Ukraine’s Fight for the Democratic Future

With 2023 behind us and its goals accomplished, we stepped into 2024 filled with optimism and aspirations. This year is poised to be a pivotal one, shaping our lives for years to come. While it echoes significant historical milestones, tempting us to speculate on what lies ahead, we must remember that the future is unwritten. Unlike history, which offers clear hindsight, the path forward remains uncertain.

2024 marks the 2nd year of Russian full-scale invasion in Ukraine. 2 Februaries ago, most major Ukrainian cities were hit with missiles for the first time, unfortunately though, far from the last. What Russia hoped to be a blitz-krieg called “Kyiv-in-3-days” with impunity turned into the greatest war in the European continent since World War II. Undoubtedly, The Ukrainian defence in this war is the very definition of invincibility, desire for freedom, and the true victory of democracy - if not on the battlefield yet, then already in Ukrainians’ heads and hearts. It has not emerged out of nowhere, however, but has been the product of the chain reaction that has started long before these life changing events. Let’s look into its reactants. 

2004: The Orange Revolution

We will probably all agree that a country that has undergone 70 years of the Soviet regime can hardly be considered a fully democratic one in only 10-15 years of its independence. It did not come as a surprise that Ukraine was not perceived as such either. Yet, 2004 proved that Ukrainians can and will stand up for democratic principles and the European future for their country when some political figures dare to threaten them. 

The regular democratic presidential elections in Ukraine were scheduled for 2004, at last presenting an opportunity for change in the political life of the country as the previous president had already been occupying the office for 2 terms. The candidates to have reached the second round were Viktor Yanukovich and Viktor Yushchenko, the first representing the Party of Regions and the latter - Our Ukraine, representing polar opposites of the parliament of Ukraine at that time. The primary disagreements referred to the EU and NATO visions for Ukraine with Yanukovich rejecting the very idea,turning to Russia instead, and Yushchenko lobbying the future inсlusion of Ukraine into these organisations. Having secured the support of the eastern regions of the country, Yanukovich was relying on the highest possible voter turnout there to  grant him the presidential office for the next 5 years. When the results from the Central Election Commision (CEC) arrived, they claimed victory for Yanukovich and reported the voter turnout in the East at nearly 97%. However, this figure differed from the independent national exit-polls, which also  named Yushchenko the president-to-be. This raised significant doubts about the trustworthiness of the official result and led to questions being raised.

The people of Ukraine, out of refusal to accept the official results and being ready to protest, started gathering in the main square of Kyiv - the Independence Square - with bright-orange coloured flags in their hands which represented the brand colours of Yushchenko’s party. This is exactly why the event went down in history as the Orange Revolution. Hundreds of thousands of protesters promised to never leave the square until the CEC’s results were recognised to have been falsified. Consequently, the parliament of Ukraine declared the vote of no confidence in the CEC and the Supreme Court ruled to re-hold the second round of the elections in “Yushchenko vs. the CEC” case. Meanwhile, Yanukovich and his party were busy inciting separatist movements in Donbas and instilling the idea of the “independence” of the region which threatened the territorial integrity. Does that ring a bell?

As a result of the third round of the elections, Yushchenko was fairly elected the third president of Ukraine. The revolution won. The effect, though, did not last long. Although Yushchenko is even now sometimes claimed to be the most pan-European president in Ukraine, neither he, who did not enter the second round of the next election, nor the then-prime minister Yuliia Tymoshenko, who ran against Yanukovich in the 2010 election, seemed not to live up to the people’s expectations. Thus, Yanukovich took the presidential office in 2010 and became the most infamous political figure in Ukraine. His unfavourable decisions and the pro-Russian campaign led to the far greater revolution, the consequences of which Ukraine is still suffering.. 

2013-2014: the Euromaidan 

The presidential and the PM’s offices under Yanukovich and his ally Nikolai Azarov respectively noted the biggest political failure in Ukraine. The first one was often mocked in hilarious shorts as in one where he pretends to be brought down to the ground when someone aimed an egg at him. Meanwhile, the latter struggled to read prepared speeches in Ukrainian from the tribune in the parliament assemblies. The first democratic backslide was a switch to a semi-presidential form of government instead of a parliamentary-presidential one, which allowed Yanukovich to accumulate more power into his hands. The revolutionary sentiments in the country started uprising right after the elections. However, the point of no return for the political elites was marked when Yanukovich refused to sign the Association Agreement with the EU in Vilnius at the end of 2013. For the Ukrainian people, who have longed to become a part of the EU since gaining independence, this act was the last straw. 

In November 2013, a group of university students gathered for a peaceful demonstration in support of EU-Ukraine cooperation. They were the first to be violently beaten by police forces obeying the orders of the president. In reaction to this, on the following day, hundreds and then thousands of people started arriving to protest on the already historic after the Orange Revolution Independence Square. The Ukrainian name for it sounds like Maidan Nezalezhnosti; that is where Euromaidan comes from which is and abbreviation for the venue and what protesters were standing for. 

2014: The Revolution of Dignity

Not surprisingly, Yanukovich and Azarov were not ready to give up this easily, despite demands from the protestors for them to stand aside and resign. They leaned on the police forces who were ready to attack the protesters any moment. In January 2014, when protests did not seem to dissolve but only escalated, the news of the first murders started to reach mass media. Protesters were found tortured to death in the woods and shot dead in the square. This coincided in time with the parliament of Ukraine adopting a new legislative package which is now known under the name of  “Dictatorship Laws” with violent infringements to the procedure. Deputies voted with their hands instead of electronic systems, the texts of the legislation were only published the day after the vote, and it was signed without any delay by the president. These laws criminalised civil society and the opposition to the incumbent government and granted more power to state bodies. 

This was supposed to put an end to democracy in Ukraine.However, millions of people in the square raged. Instead of simply renewing EU-Ukraine cooperation, the protesters now demanded the complete withdrawal of the then-government and amnesty for political prisoners. They set fire to state institutions, started fights with police, and shouted their demands from the stage. And so began the ‘Revolution of Dignity’.

On February 18, the police forces were given the command to intervene and bring down the rioters using whatever means necessary. Mass executions lasted 3 days with their culmination on February 20 when 48 people were killed. Altogether, over 100 protesters were executed at the square and are now regarded as the Heavenly Hundred who put their lives at stake to ensure Ukraine’s democratic European future.

Yet despite last desperate attempt to hold onto power, Azarov was finally forced to resign as Prime Minister,  together with Yanukovich and a bunch of other highly positioned politicians. Who all then fled to Russia at the end of February. The parliament declared the fugitives ‘out of office’ and the country was left with no president, only an  acting prime minister. The revolution won again. But this time no one cheered. People were commemorating their fellow protesters and gathering power to fight a much worse threat - Russia itself. 

2014: The beginning of the Russo-Ukrainian war

During the Revolution of Dignity, Ukraine found itself in a very weak position. In fact, it was “beheaded” since the most powerful governors turned out to be traitors. There could not be a better timing to undermine the country’s integrity. Separatist movements, backed up by Russia’s military presence, and Russian puppets were now in the game. On the bloodiest day of the mass executions, February 20, Russia started a military invasion of the Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea, taking advantage of Ukraine’s instability. Ukraine, engulfed in the revolution, failed to respond promptly and properly. Thus, less than a month later, sham referendums were held announcing Crimea’s “reunification” with Russia by 90+% of voters. 

After the Revolution of Dignity came to an end, Ukraine’s political structure needed to be built anew. Neither the parliament nor the acting PM had the people’s trust. The Crimea question was not the only one in the urgent agenda. As Ukraine failed to deliver an immediate and effective reaction to the occupation, Russia believed their actions would be left unpunished. In the spring of the same year, together with the separatists, the Russian military occupied Donbas’s territory along with its two main cities - Donetsk and Luhansk. Installing their puppet governments, supposedly legitimised by holding sham referendums, Russia hoped to replay the Crimea scenario. However, Ukraine, which started standing up again after the collapse, was now pushing back. Finally, Russia failed to occupy the whole region and chose other tactics to pursue  a first-of-its kind hybrid war. Claiming it is not their military in Ukrainian Donbas, Russian political powers including military commanders and Putin himself gave orders to their subjects in the region to claim the region’s independence from Ukraine. The neoplasms called themselves the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (the so-called L/DPR) and were led by military forces. This helped Russia to deny their responsibility before their international partners for quite some time until the commencement of the full-scale invasion. 

During 2014-2022, both President Poroshenko and President Zelenskyy, delivered demands for the withdrawal of the Russian military from Ukraine’s sovereign territories but they were all ignored. Countless negotiations were held and a few treaties were signed. All of them called for ceasefire and humanitarian corridors which, as we now know, had no sense since they were all broken by the Russian side. 

2014: The beginning of EU-Ukraine relationships 

However brutal and life changing for Ukraine 2014 was, it also marked a whole new page in the international affairs of Ukraine. Shortly after entering the presidential office, Petro Poroshenko signed the Association Agreement with the EU in Brussels. This act has dotted all the i’s in the eyes of those who had still questioned Ukraine’s Europeanness. Although Ukraine still has a lot of work ahead to reach the European standards, the path has been set and the country is inches away from finally reaching the goals for which the Heavenly Hundred gave their lives.  

2024: Tabula rasa 

People say that history tends to repeat itself. In Ukraine’s case, this might actually be proven truthful. Two vast revolutions, the 10-year war, thousands of people sacrificing their lives, millions of displaced people who have gone seeking shelter and a better future upon Ukraine, homes burnt to ashes, and whole cities wiped off of maps - and all of this just to preserve the freedom that belongs to Ukraine by right. 

Unlike 2004 and 2014 which faded into history books, 2024 is a tabula rasa - a clean slate - a blank page we are yet to fill in. We have to do everything in our powers to ensure that the cycle of mishaps finally breaks for Ukraine and the threat to the democratic world is finally lifted. And only then will the Heavenly Hundred’s lives truly be commemorated.  

The last twenty years have felt like a “Groundhog Day” for Ukrainians. Trapped in a never ending cycle, they keep on fighting hoping to become worthy of the desired EU and NATO integration. “Choose your battles”, - they say. Ukrainians have already chosen theirs. Now, it is high time to ensure that in the 2024 bucket list Ukraine ticks boxes for “Acquiring the European Union Membership” and “Victory”. 

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The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) alone. These views do not necessarily reflect those of LYMEC.

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