Weaponising Energy: An Origin Story

Since the start of the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, EU countries have faced an energy crisis, as many were dependent on Russian fossil fuels, and some still are to this day. 

The war initiated by Russia led to a series of sanctions from the European Union, prompting most countries to rush toward alternative sources of supply and particularly to accelerate the rollout of renewable energy to ensure energy independence and security. Among the most directly-affected countries have been those with a high dependence on Russian gas and a less diversified energy mix. While some countries were able to switch swiftly to alternative sources; others took a bit longer, and still, others are in the process of transitioning away from Russian energy supply.

Regional context

Most of the countries neighbouring Ukraine had a high dependence on Russian gas, especially in the case of Poland, the Republic of Moldova, and Bulgaria. 

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine, its gas imports accounted for 40% of the EU’s consumption; nowadays, this dependence has fallen below 8%. The use of energy as a source of blackmail by Russia was bluntly demonstrated in April 2022,, when Russia unilaterally decided to halt gas supplies to Poland and Bulgaria, thereby increasing the urgency for EU member states to switch away from Russian energy supplies. As Hungary maintained a friendly attitude towards the Russian regime, it was not affected by such a decision.

As a country directly neighboring Ukraine, Romania was fortunate to have only a small dependency on Russian gas and a well-balanced energy mix. In 2021, three-quarters of the gas consumed in Romania was produced internally. According to Dumitru Chisăliţă, President of the Intelligent Energy Association (AEI), Romania is the EU country with the lowest dependence on gas imports.

Romania’s Energy Mix

Currently, Romania boasts a well-balanced energy mix that includes conventional, nuclear, and renewable sources. According to the latest reports (January 2024) from the Romanian Energy Regulatory Authority (ANRE), 89.46% of the gas consumed in Romania during January 2024 was produced internally, while 10.54% was imported.

Regarding gas, there is a lot of anticipation for the Neptun Deep project in the Black Sea, where the joint venture with OMV-group is expected to turn Romania into a small regional gas-hub. Neptun Deep is a natural gas field discovered in the Black Sea from where the first gas is expected to be extracted in 2027 and it is a joint project between OMV Petrom and Romgaz. The Neptun Deep field is estimated to contain recoverable natural gas resources of approximately 100 billion cubic meters (bcm).

On the electricity front, Romania also maintains a balanced mix of sources. In January 2024, electricity generation was distributed as follows: 29.01% from hydropower, 24.07% from gas, 18.44% from nuclear, 15.42% from wind, and 11.04% from coal. Meanwhile, solar energy contributed relatively little, below 1%, similar to biomass and other alternative sources.

Nuclear Power in Romania's Energy Future

The use of nuclear power as an energy source might come as a surprise to some, but Romania has been producing civil nuclear energy for quite some years at Cernavodă, operating two reactors since 2007 and producing approximately 5 TWh annually.

Although nuclear energy represents a controversial source in some countries, currently, 12 out of the 27 EU member states have nuclear power plants, including France (56 reactors), Spain (7 reactors), Belgium (5 reactors), and Slovakia (5 reactors). 

Nuclear power has both advantages and disadvantages. On the positive side, it produces low CO2 emissions, and considering the EU's current ambitions to become climate-neutral by 2050, nuclear power has the potential to help the EU achieve this goal. This potential has been recognised in the EU Taxonomy Complementary Delegated Act, which includes gas and nuclear power as transitional activities under strict conditions.

The inclusion of nuclear under the act aims to boost investments in it. Romania is planning to build additional nuclear reactors to enhance its energy security and to become a key regional leader in nuclear energy operations. As the Romanian President, Klaus Iohannis, emphasised during the first Nuclear Energy Summit, which took place in Brussels on the 21st of March 2024, Romania is determined to develop its nuclear energy program by enhancing large-scale production capacity and deploying the innovative Small Modular reactor technology by working with the US and other key partners. 

The Romanian Ministry of Energy also publicly supports the SMR project in the country, which is expected to be developed in collaboration with NuScale, an American company specialising in such reactors.

On the other hand, nuclear energy also poses challenges, such as the supply of uranium and the disposal of nuclear waste. Finland is preparing an underground long-term storage site for spent nuclear fuel to address the latter concern.

If developed quickly and safely, new nuclear power production facilities can help the EU decarbonise and ensure energy independence and security in the face of growing geopolitical challenges. Countries like France and Spain could also contribute their knowledge and experience to developing such potential nuclear sites in the future.

Boosting Renewables

In addition to hydropower, coal, and gas, Romania has also managed to enhance its uptake of renewables, such as wind and solar. However, solar power generation remains relatively small, contributing under 1%. On the other hand, wind power generation accounts for 15%, and solar power is expected to gain momentum in the coming months and years as more incentives are provided to those who install such facilities and connect them to the grid.

A major potential risk concerning renewable energy and the EU's entire climate plans is the supply of renewable energy generation materials, such as solar panels and components for electric vehicles. Currently, the EU relies heavily on China, sourcing more than 80% of its solar panels from the country. This dependency could pose a significant threat given the increasing tensions between China and Taiwan, along with human rights concerns, including the suspected use of forced labor in the production of solar panels in China.

One area where Romania is lagging, despite its huge potential, is in using green gas, also known as biogas, and biomethane (when upgraded). This can be injected into the gas grid to replace fossil fuel gas in the long run, thus aiding the country and the European Union towards decarbonisation. The EU has set a goal of producing 35 billion cubic meters (bcm) of biomethane by 2030, up from the current 4.2 bcm. Achieving this goal requires a joint effort of the member states. Based on its potential, Romania could produce up to 2 bcm of biomethane by 2030, thus contributing to the common goal of the EU. 

The Role of a Well-balanced Energy Mix and Reliable Suppliers

Through the Russian invasion of Ukraine, EU member states and even countries beyond the EU, such as the Republic of Moldova, have recognised the importance of having a well-balanced energy mix to avoid being blackmailed or threatened in an increasingly unstable geopolitical environment. The energy supply of each country has proven to be a crucial asset, as evidenced by the unstable prices and rising cost of living in the past few years, which have threatened governments and forced them to seek new, diversified, and more reliable suppliers.

Countries neighbouring Ukraine, being near the war initiated by Russia, have managed to disconnect from Russian gas and quickly switch to more reliable suppliers. In the case of Romania, the country already possessed a balanced energy mix; thus, switching away from the Russian energy supply was easier. 

As the war in Ukraine shows no signs of abating, EU member states must continue diversifying their energy sources further and seek less polluting alternatives and more reliable suppliers for imports. A swift rollout of renewables such as wind and solar, coupled with natural gas and biomethane for the long term, as well as nuclear power, can ensure that countries maintain a well-balanced energy mix and shield themselves from potential future threats to their energy supply.

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2. https://www.consilium.europa.eu/en/infographics/eu-gas-supply/
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6. https://anre.ro/despre/rapoarte/ 
7. https://ro.wikipedia.org/wiki/Centrala_nuclear%C4%83_de_la_Cernavod%C4%83 
8. https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/BRIE/2023/751456/EPRS_BRI(2023)751456_EN.pdf
9. https://climate.ec.europa.eu/eu-action/european-climate-law_en 
10. https://ec.europa.eu/commission/presscorner/detail/en/ip_22_4349 
11. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Onkalo_spent_nuclear_fuel_repository 
12. https://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/what-are-small-modular-reactors-smrs 
13. https://www.capital.ro/ministerul-energiei-sustinem-proiectul-reactoarelor-modulare-de-mici-dimensiuni-in-romania.html 
14. https://energy.ec.europa.eu/publications/2023-biomethane-country-fiches_en
15. https://www.europeanbiogas.eu/wp-content/uploads/2023/12/EBA-Statistical-Report-2023-Launch-webinar.pdf 
16. https://www.euractiv.com/section/energy-environment/news/austrias-dependence-on-russian-gas-rises-to-98-two-years-after-ukraine-war/ 
17. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-57124636 
18. https://www.omvpetrom.com/en/our-business/exploration-and-production/neptun-deep 
19. https://www.iaea.org/events/nuclear-energy-summit-2024 

The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) alone. These views do not necessarily reflect those of LYMEC.