The Republic of Bulgaria’s two-decade journey toward the single currency is in its final stage. The Convergence Report 2025 judged Bulgaria compliant on all five tests. Inflation averaged 2.7% in the reference period versus a 2.8% ceiling; debt stands below 25% of GDP; and interest rate, exchange rate, and fiscal benchmarks were met as well. Furthermore, on 19–20 June 2025, the Eurogroup and the EU’s Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) endorsed Sofia’s bid and labelled 1 January 2026 as “€-Day,” clearing the biggest political hurdle to date.
Where the process stands.
On 8 July 2025, the Council of the European Union—meeting in its Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) formation—formally approved the final three legal acts enabling Bulgaria to adopt the euro on 1 January 2026, setting the conversion rate at 1 EUR = 1.95583 BGN. One step remains, however: Bulgaria must keep meeting the Maastricht criteria until the clock strikes midnight on 31 December. Only when the regulation appears in the EU’s Official Journal will the decision be legally irreversible.
The Bulgarian National Bank (BNB) has already run IT drills, printed euro-denominated statements, and encouraged retailers to display dual price tags since March 2025 in preparation for the transition. From 1 September 2025, this dual display will become mandatory across all sectors. A one-month window of parallel cash circulation will let citizens swap lev notes free of charge. ATMs will start dispensing euro banknotes on 1 January 2026; lev notes will remain legal tender for one month, after which they can still be exchanged indefinitely at the BNB. Salaries, pensions, and tax brackets will convert automatically. The government has budgeted €80 million for information campaigns and anti-inflation monitoring teams.
Potential political disruptions
EU-wide surveys show record support for the euro, yet 50% of Bulgarians now tell Eurobarometer they are skeptical. The pro-Russian political party - Revival, led by Kostadin Kostadinov, continues to push for a referendum and stages regular protests. Its earlier petition fell short of the 500,000 signatures needed to force a vote, but the movement promises to keep the issue alive during the 2026 presidential race. The Revival party also made news headlines on the 22nd of February when they tried to storm the building of the European Commission in Sofia. The party currently has 33 seats in the National Assembly and is the third largest parliamentary group. In the last parliamentary elections, it received about 325 thousand votes, or about 13% of the vote. In addition to their pro-Russian stance on politics, the party has historically also taken an anti-Romani stance in the past and regularly uses anti-LGBTQ rhetoric.
However, despite their ability to mobilize street protests and dominate segments of the political debate, Revival lacks the parliamentary numbers to block euro adoption outright. As long as the governing coalition maintains its pro-European course, and with ECOFIN’s 8 July 2025 decision now legally anchored, the chances of them derailing proceedings before €-Day are low.
Can the deal still unravel?
Legally, Bulgaria cannot “opt out” once the Council regulation is in force; backing out would require either breaching the convergence criteria or persuading all EU members to amend the treaties. Economically, the lev has been pegged to the euro’s predecessor since 1999, so monetary sovereignty is already limited. The lev was pegged to the Deutsche Mark after the 1997 banking crisis and joined the EU in 2007 with the goal of adopting the euro “as soon as possible.” Entry into ERM II came in mid‑2020, but the post‑pandemic inflation surge forced Bulgaria to scrap a 2024 launch date and then miss a fallback target for 2025. Rapid disinflation in 2024–25 finally put the macro numbers back inside the Maastricht fence and reopened the door.
This legal and economic reality stands in contrast to the narrative pushed by the pro-Russian Revival party, which continues to frame euro adoption as an open question. Their rhetoric is largely populist—seizing on public skepticism to keep the issue alive for political gain—even though, in procedural terms, the “point of no return” has effectively been reached.
That said, Bulgaria must still meet the Maastricht criteria through 31 December 2025. Risks exist: inflation could tick up again if energy prices surge in winter; fiscal discipline could be tested by pre-election spending; and external shocks in the eurozone could put upward pressure on interest rates. However, barring a sharp and sustained macroeconomic deterioration, these scenarios are unlikely to materialize to the point of derailing accession.
In short, while political noise will persist—and Revival will continue using the euro debate to rally its base—the combination of long-standing currency stability, ECOFIN’s formal decision, and the government’s pro-European commitment makes the actual abandonment of €-Day in January 2026 highly improbable.
Conclusion: The Euro as a symbol of progress toward liberal values
Adopting the euro represents more than just an economic milestone—it reflects Bulgaria’s ongoing alignment with the political and institutional norms of the European Union. Over the past decade, Bulgaria has enacted judicial reforms, strengthened anti-corruption frameworks under the EU’s Cooperation and Verification Mechanism, and joined common EU positions on sanctions, foreign policy, and security coordination. These steps demonstrate that euro adoption is part of a broader political trajectory toward liberal democratic governance, not merely a monetary policy choice.
Public opinion data underscores that this is not just about economics. While support for the euro itself is mixed, surveys consistently show that a majority of Bulgarians value EU membership and see integration as a safeguard for democratic rights, judicial independence, and protection against corruption. Among younger and urban populations, the euro is more often associated with mobility, modernisation, and belonging to the European mainstream than with inflation fears or loss of monetary sovereignty.
This deeper integration is particularly significant given the rise of nationalist and pro-Russian forces at home, notably the Revival party. While Revival uses Euroscepticism to rally opposition, their agenda aligns with Moscow’s interest in fracturing EU unity. In the face of ongoing Russian aggression in Ukraine and the broader destabilising influence in Eastern Europe, anchoring Bulgaria firmly within the eurozone strengthens both its economic resilience and its political commitment to the EU’s liberal democratic order.
In this light, €-Day on 1 January 2026 will be more than a change of banknotes—it will be a defining affirmation of Bulgaria’s chosen direction: toward stability, openness, and solidarity with the European Union, despite the noise from those who would see it pulled the other way.
References:
European Central Bank and European Commission (2025) Convergence Report 2025. Available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu (Accessed: 20 June 2025).
Eurogroup and Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) (2025) Press release: Bulgaria's Eurozone accession endorsement. Available at: https://www.consilium.europa.eu (Accessed: 20 June 2025).
European Central Bank (2020) Exchange Rate Mechanism II: Bulgaria’s Membership. Available at: https://www.ecb.europa.eu (Accessed: 20 June 2025).
Sofia Globe (2025) ‘Vazrazhdane Party’s Opposition to Euro Adoption’, Sofia Globe, 20 June. Available at: https://www.sofiaglobe.com (Accessed: 20 June 2025).
Bulgaria Today (2025) ‘Vazrazhdane Party's Attempt to Storm European Commission Building’, Bulgaria Today, 22 February. Available at: https://www.bulgariatoday.com (Accessed: 20 June 2025).
Bulgarian National Bank (2025) Economic Outlook and Inflation Trends 2024-2025. Available at: https://www.bnb.bg (Accessed: 20 June 2025).
Ministry of Finance of Bulgaria (2025) Preparation for Euro Adoption: Currency Transition Plan. Available at: https://www.minfin.bg (Accessed: 20 June 2025).
Ministry of Finance of Bulgaria (2025) ‘Budget for Euro Adoption Campaigns’, Ministry of Finance. Available at: https://www.minfin.bg (Accessed: 20 June 2025).
Eurobarometer (2025) Support for the Euro in Bulgaria. Available at: https://europa.eu/eurobarometer (Accessed: 20 June 2025).
Euro Ready: Bulgaria’s Long Path to the Single Currency Is at Its End