Rearmament and Propaganda: Russia prepares for the next war

13 March 2025 by

Office LYMEC

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During the months prior to Donald Trump taking office, intelligence officials and defense policymakers were already repeatedly warned of a possible direct confrontation between Russia and NATO— a scenario that should be taken seriously in light of current news.

In January, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte made headlines by recommending that member states increase their defense spending. Those unwilling to do so, he suggested, should "take Russian language courses" or "emigrate to New Zealand." Rutte painted a concerning picture of the future: "Right now, we are safe, but in five years, we may no longer be." Rutte’s blunt advice was not offered in isolation. As early as November, German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has been making similar statements. According to him, Russia produces as many weapons and as much ammunition in three months as the entire EU does in a year. He stated that the Bundeswehr should be "combat-ready" by 2029, as Russia would not stop at Ukraine’s borders.

Pistorius is not alone in this concern. His Danish counterpart, Troels Lund Poulsen, also reported that Russia is rearming faster than expected and could attack a NATO state within the next three to five years. The Danish intelligence service explained that such a scenario would become likely if Russia were to assume that the U.S. cannot or will not support the European NATO countries in such a war. Bruno Kahl, head of Germany’s Federal Intelligence Service, believes as well that Russia is preparing for a war with the West and could be ready by the end of this decade. He considers a limited intervention with "little green men" in the Baltic states possible—under the pretext of protecting the Russian minorities there. Such a move would serve as a test of NATO’s defense capabilities.

Similar fears have also been expressed by the Lithuanian Foreign Minister Gabrielius Landsbergis, Latvia's state security service and Polish President Andrzej Duda. Estonia's foreign intelligence service has reported that Russia is preparing for a potential conflict with Western countries in the coming decade. It is clear that European leaders are on edge at the prospect of an emboldened Russia taking more chances as the USA turns a blind eye. Possibly for good reason given Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov’s statement that Russia must "be prepared for any development, including a potential military conflict with NATO in Europe in the next decade” – echoing the Estonian timeline.

Russian Weapons Production

According to Pistorius, much of Russia's weapons production is not sent to the front lines but instead stockpiled. A Sky News report states that Russia produces artillery shells about three times faster than Ukraine’s Western allies—and at a quarter of the cost. According to a study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies, Russia invested more in defense last year than all European states combined: 6.7% of its GDP, marking a 40% increase compared to the previous year.

To illustrate, here are some figures from the Royal United Services Institute: At the beginning of 2022, Russian industry produced only 250,000 rounds of 152-mm ammunition per year. By 2024, the institute estimated that production would rise to 1.325 million rounds. Another example is the Russian Kh-101 cruise missile, infamous for its use in the attack on the Okhmatdyt children's hospital in Kyiv. In 2021, only 56 of these missiles were produced, but by 2023, production had increased sevenfold—to 420.

Pistorius commented on Russia’s growing arms production by saying: "Now, one could naively argue that he [Putin] is doing this just as a precaution. As a more skeptical person, I would say that he is doing this because he has something in mind." Whilst Russia’s rate of weapons production is concerning in itself, it also poses substantial questions about whether European states can ramp up their own production in the coming months and years, and how they will seek to deter renewed Russian aggression in the event they fall short.

Propaganda as a Weapon

According to surveys by the Levada Center, television remains the primary source of information for Russians in terms of reach and trust. The most popular journalist by far is television host Vladimir Solovyov, followed by Olga Skabeyeva. 21% of Russians surveyed follow Solovyov’s programs.

As early as March 2022, Solovyov declared that Ukraine was merely a stepping stone in securing the strategic security of the Russian Federation. On the state channel Rossiya-1, he explicitly called for an attack on the Baltic states after the "denazification" of Ukraine was completed. On the same network, Russia's second-most popular propagandist, Olga Skabeyeva, warned Poland about the possible loss of its independence.

Former President and current Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council, Dmitry Medvedev, is even more explicit in his threats. He refers to the Baltic states as "provinces" of the Russian Federation and views Poland as "currently occupied." Of course, such threats could be dismissed as exaggerated. However, they reach millions of people and are funded and promoted by the Russian state. In July 2022, Vladimir Solovyov was awarded the Order "For Merit in Shaping a Positive Image of Russia" by President Putin.

Warnings Before 2022

History repeats itself in cycles. The large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 was anything but unexpected for Western intelligence agencies. For months, they warned of the impending attack due to Russian troop movements.

And even long before this invasion, the Russian public was conditioned for the upcoming large-scale war. As early as 2015, Vladimir Solovyov stated that not only Donetsk and Luhansk would belong to Russia but the entirety of Ukraine. After all, the country was supposedly incapable of "stopping the powerful movement of Russian paratroopers." In the months leading up to the invasion, propagandists' threats became increasingly explicit. In January 2021, RT’s editor-in-chief, Margarita Simonyan, called for the annexation of Donbas to Russia. In January 2022, Anton Krasovsky, head of RT’s Russian-language division, stated that Russia would send troops because Ukraine was "our territory." Nevertheless, many politicians dismissed these warnings as mere "panic-mongering" and "warmongering."

Conclusion

This article does not aim to make predictions or prophecies. It is a call to take the existing threat seriously and draw the right conclusions.

Recent comments by US President Trump leave no doubt that Europe would struggle to rely on the USA for support in the face of further Russian aggression. Trump has demanded that NATO members spend 5 percent of GDP on defense, despite the fact that the USA itself doesn’t currently meet this threshold. In February last year, Trump already explained what he would do in the event of a Russian attack on NATO countries: “No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills.” Whilst this somewhat hypocritical expectation exemplifies the Trumpian approach to diplomacy, it also puts more pressure on European states to step up their spending on defence.

When Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, then-Polish President Lech Kaczyński declared: "And we know all too well that what is happening to Georgia today could happen to Ukraine tomorrow, then the Baltic states, and perhaps even my own country—Poland." It is therefore unsurprising that Poland has the highest defense spending among all NATO states in relation to GDP (4.1%). It is followed by Estonia, the United States, Latvia, Greece, and Lithuania. Many other European countries have only just seen reason to increase their defence spending and so have a lot of catching up to do.

References

The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) alone. These views do not necessarily reflect those of LYMEC.

in Libertas

Office LYMEC 13 March 2025

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